President Vladimir Putin extended a conditional nuclear handshake to the United States on Monday, pledging that Russia would voluntarily honor the limits of the expired New START treaty for another year. This unilateral decision is aimed at ensuring strategic stability and predictability in the absence of a formal arms control agreement.
In a televised speech, Putin positioned the move as a pragmatic necessity. “We believe it is justified to try to maintain the status quo established by the New START Treaty during the current, rather turbulent period,” he stated. This means Russia will self-impose the treaty’s caps of 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and 700 deployed missiles and bombers.
However, this handshake requires the other party to grasp it. Putin made it abundantly clear that Russia’s commitment is contingent on the actions of the United States. Moscow expects Washington to adopt a similar posture of restraint. The Russian leader warned that the policy would be rendered non-viable if the U.S. were to take actions that disrupt the strategic equilibrium.
The gesture is also being presented as a potential catalyst for diplomacy. Putin expressed hope that mutual adherence to these limits could help build trust and create an “atmosphere conducive to substantive strategic dialogue.” This frames the nuclear issue as a test case for whether the two powers can find common ground and begin to normalize their relationship.
The one-year timeframe is critical. It is not a permanent solution but a stopgap measure. Russia will use this period to observe and analyze U.S. military and diplomatic postures before deciding on its next steps, effectively keeping the pressure on Washington to engage constructively.