Oil is back above $100 a barrel and may remain there for longer than policymakers and consumers would like, as the structural disruption to Middle Eastern energy supply caused by the ongoing conflict resists quick fixes. Brent crude rose around 6% Thursday to nearly $98, having briefly crossed $100, while emergency reserve releases by the world’s largest consuming nations provided only temporary relief. Analysts are beginning to revise their medium-term oil price assumptions sharply higher.
Iran continued to strike energy targets across the Gulf on Thursday, hitting merchant ships near the Strait of Hormuz, fuel tanks in Bahrain, tankers near Iraq’s export ports, and facilities adjacent to Oman’s Mina Al Fahal terminal. Three crew members aboard the Thai vessel Mayuree Naree were reported trapped. Iraq halted all crude exports and Oman cleared its main terminal.
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed since February 28, blocking about a fifth of global seaborne energy. Saudi Aramco has warned of catastrophic market consequences if the blockade persists. Iran’s military suggested prices could hit $200 if the conflict continues, framing energy supply disruption as a deliberate strategic tool.
The IEA’s 32 member nations released a record 400 million barrels of emergency crude, and the US contributed 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. These interventions provided a temporary cushion but did not address the underlying loss of productive and transit capacity in the region. Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $71 per barrel from $66.
Deutsche Bank warned of stagflation risks. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.6%, South Korea’s Kospi lost 1.2%, and European natural gas gained 7.7% for a second day. The energy market is entering a period of uncertainty not seen since the major shocks of previous decades.