The Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes remain at a standstill as the Iran war enters its third week, keeping US oil prices set to remain high throughout Monday’s trading session. Analyst Patrick De Haan has forecast pump prices of $3.85 per gallon Monday, while noting that $4 remains a near-term possibility. The blockade of one of the world’s most critical shipping corridors has become the defining factor in the current oil price crisis.
The conflict that triggered the current energy crisis began on February 28 with the first US-Israel strikes on Iran, a campaign that has since expanded to include attacks on major oil processing facilities. The national gasoline average has climbed 23% to $3.70 from below $3 before the war, reflecting the severe supply constraints created by three weeks of military operations. The impact on American household budgets has been direct and substantial.
Friday’s US assault on Kharg Island, which processes and exports a large portion of Iran’s crude, has deepened the global supply crisis. Iran’s ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to deny international buyers access to roughly one-fifth of the world’s daily oil supply. Brent crude fluctuated between $103 and $106 per barrel Monday, while US crude held near $94 after briefly touching $100 the previous day.
California’s drivers are feeling the crisis most acutely, with state averages above $5 per gallon and certain Los Angeles stations posting prices of over $8. Diesel for commercial freight and transport could reach $5.15 per gallon nationally. Senior oil industry executives from Exxon, Conoco, and Chevron have each engaged directly with the White House on supply risks, with Exxon’s Darren Woods specifically warning that speculative market activity risks inflating prices well beyond what physical supply shortages alone would justify.
Wall Street opened Monday with modest optimism, the S&P 500 gaining around 1% as crude prices briefly pulled back. Oil company shares have reached record highs since the conflict began. The energy market crisis will remain unresolved—and US oil prices will remain elevated—until the Strait of Hormuz reopens and the military campaign in Iran de-escalates.